At 5PM EDT advisory from the National Hurricane Center, a low pressure system off the North Carolina / South Carolina coast has formed into Tropical Storm Alberto.

At 6:50pm a ship indicated the center of Alberto has 60mph winds.

Below is an ASCAT scan taken at 6:30PM EDT.  This scan only shows maximum winds of 40 knots, or about 45mph.  I’m slightly skeptical of the 60mph windspeed the ship reported.  That would involve a storm intensifying extremely rapidly.  Radar on the other hand is showing a weakening of the core of Alberto.

Alberto should not get any stronger, waters are too cold off the coast of North Carolina to support such windspeed.  Therefore, I do not believe there is any risk that Alberto will become a hurricane.  Furthermore, Alberto will stay enough offshore that it will not cause significant damage to land.  Strong gusts will become common on the coasts of North Carolina and South Carolina however.

An intermediate update from the NHC states:

REPORTS FROM A SHIP NEAR THE CENTER OF ALBERTO INDICATE THAT THE
CYCLONE IS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED.  BASED PRIMARILY ON
THE PRESSURE DATA...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW ESTIMATED TO BE
60 MPH...95 KM/H.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND NO CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ARE
REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

Tropical Storm Alberto ASCAT pass

Tropical Storm Alberto Radar scan at 7:14PM EDT

Tropical Storm Alberto forecast track

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
442 PM CDT MON APR 30 2012

…PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT…

…NO CONFIRMED TORNADOES IN ALABAMA FOR APRIL 2012…

MERELY ONE YEAR AFTER ESTABLISHING THE RECORD FOR THE MOST
TORNADOES IN A SINGLE MONTH IN ALABAMA…ACTUALLY BREAKING THE
PREVIOUS ANNUAL RECORD IN A SINGLE MONTH…THERE HAS NOT BEEN A
SINGLE CONFIRMED TORNADO REPORTED IN ALABAMA IN THE MONTH OF APRIL
2012. THE LAST TIME ALABAMA EXPERIENCED A TORNADO-FREE APRIL WAS
IN 2004. THIS RESPITE COMES AS AN OBVIOUS RELIEF TO TORNADO
STRICKEN CITIZENS OF ALABAMA…MANY OF WHOM ARE STILL RECOVERING
FROM THE DEVASTATING APRIL 27TH 2011 OUTBREAK.

WHY SO MANY TORNADOES LAST YEAR AND SO FEW TORNADOES THIS YEAR?
WHILE LAST YEAR`S PATTERN WAS FAVORABLE AND ACTIVE…FOR MUCH OF
SPRING 2012 WE HAVE SEEN THE PRESENCE OF A PATTERN MORE LIKE
EARLY SUMMER…WITH WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. A BLOCKING PATTERN IN THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC HAS MOVED THE POLAR/SUBTROPICAL JETS FURTHER NORTHWARD
ALLOWING FOR AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE/HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS FOR MUCH OF THE SEASON…WITH LITTLE
CHANCE OF MOVING IT OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
WHILE THIS PATTERN CHANGE HAS CERTAINLY REDUCED THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IN ALABAMA, IT ALSO HAS BEEN CONDUCIVE FOR SHORT
TERM DROUGHT, WHICH WE WOULD CERTAINLY BE BETTER WITHOUT.

WHILE WE HAVE BEEN FORTUNATE WITH A MUCH MORE FAVORABLE 2012
SPRING SEASON THUS FAR…EVEN WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A REDUCED
THREAT…IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMAIN VIGILANT AS WE CLOSE OUT THE
SPRING PEAK TORNADO SEASON IN ALABAMA, WHICH RUNS THROUGH THE END
OF MAY.

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS REGARDING THIS INFORMATION, PLEASE
CONTACT WARNING COORDINATION METEOROLOGIST JOHN DE BLOCK AT
(205) 621-5645 EXT 223, OR BY E-MAIL TO JOHN.DEBLOCK@NOAA.GOV.

JD/02

$$

Storms will start around mid-afternoon and travel eastward approaching the Joplin area around sunset.

Friday, April 27th 2012 tornado threat

April 27, 2012 EHI model

This system will continue to move eastward and potentially cause tornadoes in Kentucky on Saturday, April 28th, 2012.

April 19th 2012 Tornado Threat

April 19th 2012 Hail Threat

Local weather observations, soundings, and computer models, and data from satellites like GOES-13 give forecasters information about developing weather situations. The GOES-13 satellite data in animated form showed the forecasters how the area of severe weather was developing, helping to prompt watches and warnings.

The GOES-13 (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) satellite is operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. NASA/NOAA’s GOES Project at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. created the animation of GOES-13 satellite data that covered the period during the massive tornado outbreak.

The GOES animation of the severe weather outbreak is in a large-format HDTV movie that runs 30 seconds. “The animation runs through the period of April 14-15, 2012 and the GOES imagery reveals the strong flow of warm, moist air from the Gulf into the advancing cold front,” said Dennis Chesters of NASA’s GOES Project.

The destructive outbreak was Saturday night, April 14 to Sunday morning, April 15, and appears half way through the GOES video, when the long streak of clouds springs into view in the middle of the frame. Although there is not much detail in the infrared-only cloud tops, there is evidence of sudden violence.

Storm Reports for April 14th, 2012 (Red: Tornado, Blue: Wind, Green: Hail)

The tornado outbreak of April 14th, 2012 caused numerous tornadoes across Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, and Iowa.  Fortunately, the vast majority of the tornadoes were in rural parts of the states.  Unfortunately, a couple did cross small towns.  One of those towns was Woodward, Oklahoma (about 140 miles northwest of Oklahoma City, Oklahoma).

At 11:50PM CDT on Saturday, April 14th, 2012 a tornado traveling in a northeasterly direction crossed through Woodward, Oklahoma. From touchdown to Woodward there was about 30 minutes where the tornado was on the ground.  At about 12:20AM CDT parts of the town of Woodward, Oklahoma were destroyed by the tornado.

Woodward’s 20 outdoor tornado sirens were knocked out when lightning struck a tower used to activate the warning system leaving many without any warning of the approaching tornado.  However, tornado sirens should not be relied upon as the sole source for tornado warnings.  Weather radios should be the primary source to receive severe weather alerts.

Preliminary reports from the National Weather Service in Norman, Oklahoma is that this storm was an EF-3 with winds of 136-165mph.

The death toll is now up to 6.  Reports note that the tornado destroyed 89 homes and 13 businesses and at least 29 people were hurt.

Woodward, Oklahoma Radar of tornado

Woodward, Oklahoma tornado path

Woodward, Oklahoma Red Cross

Woodward, Oklahoma (NWS)

Woodward, Oklahoma (Jeff Tuttle / Associated Press / April 15, 2012)

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN HARPER COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...
  WOODWARD COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...
  EXTREME NORTHEASTERN ELLIS COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 1230 AM CDT

* AT 1159 PM CDT...TRAINED STORM SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 7
  MILES SOUTHEAST OF GAGE. THIS TORNADO WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45
  MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WOODWARD...FARGO AND TANGIER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GET IN...GET DOWN AND COVER UP. TAKE COVER NOW IN A STORM SHELTER
OR AN INTERIOR ROOM OF A STURDY BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM DOORS AND
WINDOWS.

THE TORNADO WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO SEE IN THE DARK. DO NOT
WAIT. TAKE COVER NOW.

BEGINNING TIME: ~1150 PM
ENDING TIME: ~1227 AM
BEGINNING LOCATION: 2 NE ARNETT (ELLIS COUNTY)
ENDING LOCATION: 4 NORTH OF WOODWARD (WOODWARD COUNTY)
FATALITIES: 6
INJURIES: 29
EF-SCALE RATING: EF-3 ( MAX WIND SPEED 136-165 MPH )

THE TORNADO DEVELOPED APPROXIMATELY 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF ARNETT AND
MOVED NORTHEAST. SIX STRUCTURES WERE DAMAGED AS THE TORNADO MOVED
TOWARD THE WOODWARD COUNTY LINE. ONLY MINOR DAMAGE... DOWNED TREES
AND POWER POLES/LINES... WAS SEEN AS THE TORNADO MOVED OVER MAINLY
RURAL PORTIONS OF WOODWARD COUNTY. AT APPROXIMATELY 1212 AM... THE
TORNADO STRUCK TWO MOBILE HOMES 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WOODWARD. THE
DAMAGE HERE WAS DETERMINED TO BE EF-2 IN INTENSITY... WHICH ALSO
RESULTED IN 3 FATALITIES. THE HEAVIEST DAMAGE... RATED EF-3... WAS
REPORTED AS THE TORNADO ENTERED THE SOUTHWEST SIDES OF WOODWARD
AROUND 1218 AM. SEVERAL HOME AND BUSINESSES WERE HEAVILY DAMAGED AS
THE TORNADO CONTINUED NORTHEAST. SEVERAL MORE MOBILE HOMES WERE
DESTROYED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF WOODWARD... WHICH RESULTED IN 3
ADDITIONAL FATALITIES. THE TORNADO FINALLY EXITED THE CITY OF
WOODWARD AT APPROXIMATELY 1223 AM... EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING
APPROXIMATELY 4 MILES NORTH OF WOODWARD AT 1227 AM.

THIS TORNADO INFORMATION SHOULD STILL BE CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY AS
WE CONTINUE TO LOOK OVER INFORMATION.

This is a video of a tornado in East Texas, near Forney, Texas picking up trailers and throwing them around.

My problem with the video is the way the media is portraying it.  I find this video to be nothing more than “shock video”.  Why you may ask?  What the media doesn’t tell you without the viewer investigating is that these are empty trailers.  How is that relevant?  A simple bit of physics called ‘buoyancy’.

When the winds hit the trailer, the empty trailer instantly became less dense than the air and became airborne.  The empty inside of the trailer acts the same way an empty hull of a ship allows the ship to float on water.  In this case, the empty inside of the trailers allow the trailer to float on the air.

If you had say a 20,000lb EMPTY trailer, vs a 20,000 FULL trailer, the empty trailer would still become airborne due to the buoyancy, whereas the full trailer would probably tip over and/or roll a little.  Very light winds can make a buoyant trailer become airborne in no time. This has nothing to do with windspeed at all and all to do with the buoyancy and density of the trailer.  The weight of the trailer is irrelevant, it’s the buoyancy of that trailer that matters.

So basically, to show a flying trailer to give the impression a tornado is “powerful” is nothing more than either ignorance, or shock video.  To not accompany the video with a blurb stating why these trailers are flying around is poor journalism.

Now, obviously you do not want to be in the vicinity where large trailers are dropping around you, but this has nothing to do with tornado intensity.  Because of this, tornado speeds cannot be accurately assessed at the time of the tornado, so all tornadoes should be taken as if they are an EF5 and not judged by debris it’s throwing.

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Tornado potential for Sunday March 18th and Monday March 19th

There is a small risk of tornadoes stretching from East Texas, Northwest Louisiana, and Southern Arkansas today.