First off, this is NOT a forecast, more of a discussion.

With today being the beginning of hurricane season, I wanted to mention some environmental elements that have set up lately and their effects on hurricanes.

The following is a pressure map of the tropics.  There is currently a large high pressure system at a low latitude.  What this means is if a storm were to form in the Atlantic with this high that low, the storms would be ripe for following the BLUE line towards Florida and the east coast.  When this high pressure is higher up in the Atlantic, like we had last year, storms start to curve to the north and curve away from the Eastern US coast.

This high pressure location is key to where storms hit.  On the plus side, storms don’t usually form in the Atlantic until August.

Hurricane season update for June 1st, 2012

The following two graphics are where tropical systems are likely to form in the months of June and July.

Hurricane tracks for the month of July

Hurricane tracks for the month of July